State meteorologist predicts wet weather to continue
HARTINGTON - It will take an aggressive precipitation pattern through the winter and spring to eliminate deficits in soil moisture from 2022’s drought.
How aggressive? Most of eastern Nebraska would need 30-40 inches of snow in addition to what normally falls during the winter months to eliminate precipitation deficits, said Allen Dutcher, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension Agricultural Climatologist.
So far this winter, there’s been a few snowfall events that have packed a punch with significant accumulations. Normal snow to water ratios are 10:1 across eastern Nebraska, meaning 10 inches of average snow will equate to one inch of moisture.
Weather patterns for the rest of the winter and into the spring would indicate the potential for higher than normal snowfall and precipitation so there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic at least in the short-term, Dutcher said.
“I’m pretty optimistic but there’s still drought issues to deal with. Two snowfalls is not going to undo parts of the northern and Panhandle parts of the state that have been in drought off and on for almost two and a half years,” he said.
Dutcher estimates by this next growing season - at least the end of May - much of the state could see a lift in the U.S. Drought Monitor’s extreme drought classification to a more moderate level.
“When they say the drought is over, hold your horses,” he said. “Until we see a rebound in aquifer levels, the drawdown has been discontinued and we see increasing levels, yes, we can say the drought is easing but we haven’t gotten to that point yet of full elimination.”
Another factor to keep in mind is frost levels. That’s because the effectiveness of any winter snowfall will be dependent on whether soils are frozen prior to any weather events. Snowfall on frozen ground will primarily impact rivers, streams and ponds through surface runoff when melting occurs. There would be little impact on soil moisture retention unless soil remain unfrozen prior to and after each individual snow event.
Dutcher said this remains the top concern for northeast Nebraska, including Cedar County as most of the moisture received so far has not recharged soil due to frozen topsoils. Prior to the onset of Arctic air, frost depths across the northern one-third of the state ranged from six to 10 inches. Frost depths had increased to 12 to 15 inches immediately after the Christmas holiday weekend.
Therefore, much of the moisture received during December and January likely ran off when temperatures warmed above freezing, Dutcher said.
But all is not lost. Runoff benefits streamflows and low stock ponds.
“It’s not wasted water. We’d love to get it into the profile but it is easing the hydrological aspects of drought,” Dutcher said.
Oftentimes good news comes with a tinge of bad news in agriculture.
While most crop farmers will rejoice over wetter winter and spring forecast, it may increase the risk of lowland flooding and may be so wet that it could delay spring planting.
Unfortunately, cattle producers will be impacted most by this winter’s moisture which will cut back on the availability of grazing land and force higher feeding costs.
Dutcher, whose has spent decades studying the weather and its impact on agriculture as a climatologist, said the forecast boils down to an educated guess.
“It’s difficult to predict winter,” he said. “We’ve got a long way to go but when it’s all said and done I’m pretty confident based on what’s coming down the pipe.”
